Next Five Years Can Be Hotter than Normal - Tekonoloji

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Next Five Years Can Be Hotter than Normal


We can not escape that.

The past four years have been the warmest four years so far; and now according to a new scientific prediction, the next five years may be "abnormally hot", or even go beyond the constant increase that global warming will have on its own.

In fact, the current record in 2016 may have another hot year.

These may also include an increase in extraordinary temperature hazards and a large heat event in some parts of the Earth's oceans. This heat event may have been the kind of event that recently triggered the depletion of coral reefs in tropical regions.

Florian Sevellec, a co-author of Sybren Drijfhout at Southampton University in England and a scientist at the National Center for Scientific Research at the UK, says: "Over the next five years there is a possibility of a warm climate unusually cold high. "

The world is warming, but that does not mean that every year is warmer than before.

Instead, there is a general warming trend in the middle; that is, each decade following each other tends to be warmer than before. But there are also singular years that go around in terms of the amount of heat they have.

One of the most important factors in determining the temperature of a year is the fact that scientists sometimes give the name of climate "internal variability" in response to the contribution of people in the greenhouse gases it carries.

The new estimate, starting in 2018 and extending back to 2022, emerged with the prediction of how internal and natural variability would result.

For example, during the global warming "void" that lasted for 2000, these internal factors, such as the oscillations seen in the oceans of the Earth, helped the planet to somehow cooler than normal and suppressed its warming. This led to a lengthy scientific debate and 1,000 political speeches.

But now the new researcher says that the same internal factors are ready to reverse the situation (the authors of the research also say that the method they use can successfully catch the previous "void").

Moreover, assuming that global warming continues at constant speed, already rising temperatures will increase.

In the study, data from 10 of the existing climate change models or animations were taken and selected to show how best the natural forces contribute to the warmth of the planet.

Then, using the same animation, advanced traces were made and it was seen how these factors would be over the next five years.

It is worth pointing out that the conclusion is that it is a prediction based on probability.

In study, it was found that the global warmth of the world from 2018 to 2022 would be abnormally hot based on these factors with 58% probability. When the oceans of the world are concerned, this probability is 69%.

According to the report, the probability that the oceans of the world will experience a severe temperature event between 2018 and 2022 increases by 400 percent.

The year 2018 is already a very hot year, but it is not a record-breaking year.

For example, the period from March to May of this year was 0.87 Celsius above the planet's average between 1954 and 1980, and according to NASA's Goddard Space Studies Institute, it was the third largest period in temperature records.

It is too early to decide what year this year is going to be ranked as a whole. According to NASA, the year 2016 was the hottest year on record; followed by 2017, 2015 and 2014.

The Post journal has two scientists asking for new research, they have different views.

John Fyfe, Climate Scientist at the Canadian Climate Modeling and Analysis Center, says: "The study offers a new, hopeful and low-budget approach to forecasting near-term changes in global mean surface temperature."

"The results show that the internal changes in the climate system will likely increase the surface temperature and the increase will be well above the expected level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, at least for the next five years. This information is obviously important for scientists, decision makers and society. "

But Gavin Schmidt, who heads NASD's Goddard Space Studies Institute, says the size of the effect is not too big, and says that for 2018, the temperature of the planet as a whole is estimated to be only about two percent higher than the temperature of the planet.

Schmidt writes in an e-mail that he wrote: "Let's be clear, to say that 2018 will be up to 0.02 degrees Celsius and that 58 percent of it will be ... not really important (even if it requires something)."

He also says that centralizing the decision to decide the extraordinary temperature of any given year is to look at whether it is an El Nino year for that year, as in 2016. Scientists, however, insist that the Earth does not go to El Nino, and such a prediction has not been made in this study.

Schmidt is also questioning whether the temperature hint implied in the new work will be as important as "pause" or "gap" in the global warming of the 2000s.

"The 'space' was a problem because it was against the main view. Pay attention to that. To be a bit high for a few years, it will not be a problem. Also, as I have emphasized for decades, what matters is long-term trends, "he writes.

If anybody can not deny that he is going to test the new forecast for the next 54 months (including those in NASA's July yet, which NASA has not yet reported).


Sevellec says: "This is just one study. What will be interesting is that there will be more work to test to see if the estimate we made is correct. "

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